The number of murders in Arab Israeli society has increased 2.8 times since 2018 if the size of the population is taken into account, according to a new study published earlier this month by the Taub Center for Social Policy Studies in Israel. In 2023, the number of murders jumped to 233 cases, compared to 109 cases in 2022. The Jewish population also saw an increase – 66 murders during the year compared to 38 in 2022.
According to the study, in 2023 the number of murders in the Arab population increased consistently every month until September, when 29 Arabs were murdered. When compared to international data, the murder rate among Arab Israelis ranks as one of the highest among industrialized nations.
"The huge increase in the number of murders in Arab society since 2018, 2.8 times per capita, is very disturbing," said Prof. Alex Weinreb, one of the authors of the study. "It is important to note that this is not a foregone conclusion. In 2022, we saw a significant decrease in the rate of murders. Although it is impossible to attribute this decrease to any one factor on its own, it would be reasonable to assume that it is related to the change in the policy of dealing with violence in Arab society that year."
According to the researchers, the differences in murder rates between Arabs and Jews in Israel have implications on the patterns of inequality in mortality from violence. Until 2015, the ratio between the murder rate among Arabs and among Jews in Israel was 1:4. In 2023, it reached 1:13. For comparison, in the United States, where the murder rate is particularly high relative to other wealthy countries, the ratio between murders of white and black Americans stood at 1:8 as of 2019. That is to say that the disparity in the murder rates between Jews and Arabs in Israel in 2023 is about 60% greater than the difference in the murder rates between black and white Americans in the US.
The analysis of the data shows that most of those murdered in Israeli Arab society in 2023 were between the ages of 20-34. In the years 2011-2023, the Jewish population in Israel grew by about 25%, and the Arab population grew by about 30%. The growth rate of Jewish men aged 20-34 during this period was about 10%, compared to an increase of about 46% among Arabs. The researchers compared the number of those murdered in relation to the number of young people (ages 20-34) and discovered that in 2023 among Arabs the ratio was 43.9 per 100,000 compared to 4.6 among the non-Arab population.
According to the researchers, a sharp decrease in growth rates for Arabs aged 20-34 is expected in the coming years, alongside an increase amongst Jews in the same age group. The relatively rapid increase in the number of murders among Jews in 2023 may indicate a change in the downward trend in murder rates from previous years.
The researchers point out that a culture of violence has a habit of spreading and becoming the norm, as has happened in the Arab population in recent years, and violence tends to increase especially during periods of instability in the country. This instability is manifested in the weakening of traditional authority structures, high levels of inequality, and social, economic and political challenges that fuel increases in violence and murder rates. According to the authors of the study, it is possible to stop this vicious circle and even reverse the trend – whether through measures similar to those taken in 2021-2022 or through other means.
The researchers compared the murder rates in Israel to the murder rates in 32 OECD countries in 2019, the year in which the dizzying increase in murders in Arab society began. In 2019, Israel ranked tenth in the rate of murders per 100,000 people – 1.6 cases, compared to 3.04 cases in 2023. Broken down by subpopulations, among Arabs the rate was 4.9 murders per 100,000 people, compared to 0.67 among Jews. These rates placed Arabs in Israel in the fifth highest place and the Jews in the fifth lowest place. Examining the number of murders per 100,000 20-34 year olds, Arabs ranked sixth highest and Jews ranked fourth lowest.
This article was translated from Hebrew by Ronen Cohen.
