The Gulf states are now forced, following the signing of the memorandum of understanding between Iran and the United States, to find ways to continue living alongside a state that only recently fired hundreds of missiles and drones at them. Dr. Moran Zaga, a researcher on the United Arab Emirates and Gulf states, describes in a conversation with Davar the complex way in which the different Gulf countries are coping with national humiliation, alongside a rise in Gulf patriotism.
It seems the Gulf states are returning to Iran’s orbit. Does this signal a new regional order?
“All of the Gulf states are currently taking steps toward reconciliation with Iran—even the UAE, which spoke most sharply against Iran and even carried out a military strike against it during the war. There are already reports that the UAE has pledged to transfer several billion to Iran. The countries are doing everything they can to reposition themselves, at least during the 60-day ceasefire, in order to restore the flow of gas and oil and rebuild their economies.”
“We are nevertheless seeing some differences between the various countries, for example in their response to the announcement. Qatar, the mediator, was the first to welcome the agreement, followed by Oman and Saudi Arabia. The countries that suffered the most from Iran, namely the UAE, Bahrain, and Kuwait, responded with greater restraint, issuing only general statements that diplomacy is preferable to war.
“All the Gulf states continue to maintain their existing alliances, as well as significant arms-import and rearmament contracts signed during the war. In other words, there is also an end to appeasement. No state is giving up its ability to defend itself going forward, and they continue to diversify their partnerships.”
How do residents of the Gulf states view these gestures toward Iran?
“Everyone understands that this is humiliation. Humiliation cannot go unanswered in the Arab world, which is why I think the last word has not yet been spoken, and we are seeing that leaders have to take this into account in their conduct.
“The Saudi foreign minister was asked about the $300 billion compensation fund for Iran and whether Saudi Arabia would participate. He said that before any Saudi gesture is made, a long period of rebuilding trust is required. We also see that the Emiratis are allowing journalists and prominent Emirati figures to speak out against the agreement and against Iran, something they do not permit on many other issues. It is possible that this restraint is only temporary.”
Does it affect other ways as well?
“National identities are strengthening. Even during the war there were flag displays, and now we are seeing additional expressions of patriotism. In Qatar, leaders have begun appearing on television in military uniforms. In the UAE, all citizens were sent a barcode linking to a digital form for a declaration of loyalty for every citizen or resident in the country. This is drawn from an earlier tribal practice in which tribal leaders pledged allegiance to the ruler, but in the context of the war it has been turned into an individual requirement.
“So there is a rallying around the flag, and on the other side of that there is also increased pressure on minorities. We are seeing a trend of revoking citizenship from Shiites of Iranian origin—not only in the UAE and Kuwait, where Shiites are a minority, but also in Bahrain, where they are the majority.”
How is Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman responding? He is known as someone who previously tried to build a regional bloc against Iran.
“During this period we hardly see or hear from him. He didn’t even attend the G7 meeting, where the memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran was announced. He is focusing on building alliances with non-Arab states such as Pakistan and Turkey, at the expense of engagement with the Arab world. In my view, he is simply afraid—for example of the Houthis, whom Iran could decide to activate against him. It is still too early to say, but in the long term this development may weaken Saudi Arabia’s standing.”
How are the Gulf states preparing for the continuation?
“It seems that within about 60 days we will know whether there will be an agreement or a war. In the meantime, they are forced to play the game and bow to Iran, while underneath the surface the antagonism and the desire to restore honor are clearly developing.
What is Israel’s place in their perspective?
“It is clear to them that for any future action against Iran they must strengthen security alliances. On the one hand, they see Israel as having demonstrated impressive military capabilities. There is an existing alliance between the UAE and Israel, including Iron Dome, and the Emiratis are already making that relationship more visible. The Gulf states understand that, out of a need for diversification, they cannot give up ties with Israel.
“On the other hand, their eyes are on the upcoming elections here. They are concerned about being associated with the current government. A change of government could be an opportunity to accelerate normalization processes. The Gulf states understand that they do not have many alternatives.”
